US Economy

Growth, inflation, jobs and interest rates from official US data, updated as each release lands. Pick any indicator to look it up, or search FRED’s public series on the Explore tab. For stocks, sectors and breadth, see Market.

OverviewAI BriefSignalsCalendarRatesJobsGlobalNewsExplore
Fed funds target3.75–4.00%0 bp vs a month agoNov 10Next Dec 9CPI inflation (y/y)3.72%+0.36 pt vs prior monthSep 2026Next Nov 10Unemployment4.10%−0.10 pt vs prior monthOct 2026Next Dec 4Payrolls (monthly)+165K+105K vs prior month3-month average +137KOct 2026Next Dec 4Real GDP growth3.40%+1.20 pt vs prior quarterQ3 2026Next Nov 2510-year Treasury4.88%−36 bp vs a month agoNov 9
All 20 indicators →
AI summary

Recession watch

0 of 5signals triggered
  • Sahm rule0.00 · signals above 0.5Clear
  • 10Y–3M spread0.68 · signals below 0Clear
  • Chicago Fed activity index (3-mo)0.03 · signals below -0.7Clear
  • Recession probability0.40 · signals above 50Clear
  • St. Louis Fed financial stress-0.52 · signals above 0Clear
Every gauge and its history

Yield curve

+0.32 pts10y minus 2y
10-year Treasury4.88%
10y minus 3m+0.64 pts

Upward sloping: longer bonds pay more, the normal shape. As of Nov 9.

Rates, the curve and the Fed

Growth and inflation

Overheating

growth above trend and core inflation rising (Sep 2026). A description, not a forecast.

Recent quarters
Q3 2026Overheating
Q2 2026Overheating
Q1 2026Stagflation risk
Q4 2025Stagflation risk
Growth, jobs and the regime map

Indicators against their history

Strong against ten years6
Weak against ten years5
In between9

Strongest: Initial claims, Core capital goods orders, Industrial production.

Weakest: Housing starts, Real disposable income, CPI inflation.

The heat map, month by month

Macro news

-0.27Negative
declining(-0.20 vs 7d ago)
Open News

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED terms. Global figures from the OECD (CC BY 4.0). Data sources