The Fed funds target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
The Fed funds rate, Treasury yields from 1 month to 30 years, the yield curve, real yields and the next Fed decision.
Shaded bands are US recessions. Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The rate banks actually pay overnight, which the Fed holds inside its target range, against the 2-year Treasury, which moves on where markets expect policy to go.
| Date | Effective fed funds | 2-year Treasury |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 | 3.88% | — |
| Nov 10 | 3.88% | 4.73% |
| Nov 9 | 3.88% | 4.56% |
| Nov 8 | 3.88% | — |
| Nov 7 | 3.88% | — |
| Nov 6 | 3.88% | 4.51% |
| Nov 5 | 3.88% | 4.46% |
| Nov 4 | 3.88% | 4.58% |
| Nov 3 | 3.88% | 4.61% |
| Nov 2 | 3.88% | 4.59% |
| Nov 1 | 3.88% | — |
| Oct 31 | 3.88% | — |
Long minus short yields. Below zero the curve is inverted, which has come before most US recessions.
| Date | 10Y – 2Y | 10Y – 3M |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | 0.24 pp | 0.78 pp |
| Nov 10 | 0.25 pp | 0.68 pp |
| Nov 9 | 0.32 pp | 0.64 pp |
| Nov 6 | 0.35 pp | 0.67 pp |
| Nov 5 | 0.38 pp | 0.67 pp |
| Nov 4 | 0.32 pp | 0.69 pp |
| Nov 3 | 0.34 pp | 0.74 pp |
| Nov 2 | 0.32 pp | 0.70 pp |
| Oct 30 | 0.38 pp | 0.78 pp |
| Oct 29 | 0.37 pp | 0.80 pp |
| Oct 28 | 0.38 pp | 0.87 pp |
| Oct 27 | 0.29 pp | 0.77 pp |
The effective fed funds rate minus core PCE inflation: above zero, policy is restraining the economy.
| Date | Real policy rate |
|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 0.76 pp |
| Aug 1 | 0.60 pp |
| Jul 1 | 0.63 pp |
| Jun 1 | 0.59 pp |
| May 1 | 0.46 pp |
| Apr 1 | 0.56 pp |
| Mar 1 | 0.53 pp |
| Feb 1 | 0.68 pp |
| Jan 1 | 0.70 pp |
| Dec 1 | 0.77 pp |
| Nov 1 | 1.17 pp |
| Oct 1 | 1.16 pp |
The 10-year TIPS (real) yield and the breakeven inflation priced into Treasuries.
| Date | 10-year real yield | 10-year breakeven | 5y5y forward inflation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | — | 2.24% | 2.17% |
| Nov 10 | 2.78% | 2.20% | 2.15% |
| Nov 9 | 2.66% | 2.22% | 2.19% |
| Nov 6 | 2.63% | 2.23% | 2.17% |
| Nov 5 | 2.60% | 2.24% | 2.22% |
| Nov 4 | 2.64% | 2.26% | 2.22% |
| Nov 3 | 2.65% | 2.30% | 2.21% |
| Nov 2 | 2.62% | 2.29% | 2.19% |
| Oct 30 | 2.60% | 2.34% | 2.22% |
| Oct 29 | 2.63% | 2.35% | 2.23% |
| Oct 28 | 2.67% | 2.38% | 2.27% |
| Oct 27 | 2.64% | 2.35% | 2.25% |
The extra yield investors demand to hold a 10-year bond rather than roll short ones (Kim–Wright model).
| Date | Term premium |
|---|---|
| Nov 6 | 0.87 pp |
| Nov 5 | 0.87 pp |
| Nov 4 | 0.90 pp |
| Nov 3 | 0.91 pp |
| Nov 2 | 0.91 pp |
| Oct 30 | 0.91 pp |
| Oct 29 | 0.93 pp |
| Oct 28 | 0.95 pp |
| Oct 27 | 0.93 pp |
| Oct 26 | 0.94 pp |
| Oct 23 | 0.94 pp |
| Oct 22 | 0.94 pp |
The scheduled US releases that move these figures, from FRED's release calendar.