Buying at an all-time high did no worse than buying any other month
Since 1950, the S&P 500 rose 9.4% on average in the year after a month-end at a record, the same as after any other month. A 10% fall within the year was less likely from a record, not more.
- The year after a record month-end
- +9.4%
- 10% fall within a year, from a record
- 20%
- 10% fall within a year, otherwise
- 32%
- Five years after a record
- +50%
- Five years, otherwise
- +53%
What we found
Since 1950, 8% of month-ends closed at an S&P 500 record. A year later the index was up 9.4% on average from those months, the same as from every other month, and higher 78% of the time against 74%.
Over three and five years records trailed a little (27% against 30%, and 50% against 53%), well within chance. With dividends, on SPY since 1993, records did better: 14.2% a year later against 11.9%.
Records weren’t fragile either. The index fell 10% or more within the next year from 20% of record month-ends, against 32% of the others. Highs tend to come in strong markets, and strong markets tend to persist.
The full results
- At a record
- Any other month
- From a record
- From any other month
| Horizon | At a record | Other months | Up, at a record | Up, other months | t (Newey–West) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +9.4% | +9.4% | 78% | 74% | −0.02 |
| 3 years | +26.6% | +29.5% | 87% | 85% | −0.55 |
| 5 years | +50.3% | +52.8% | 84% | 84% | −0.33 |
923 month-ends, 8% at a record. A 10% fall within the next year: 20% from a record, 32% otherwise.
| Horizon | At a record | Other months | Up, at a record | Up, other months | t (Newey–West) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +8.2% | +8.2% | 73% | 69% | 0.01 |
| 3 years | +16.3% | +25.7% | 76% | 79% | −1.06 |
| 5 years | +36.3% | +46.4% | 74% | 81% | −0.82 |
1187 month-ends, 7% at a record. A 10% fall within the next year: 26% from a record, 37% otherwise.
| Horizon | At a record | Other months | Up, at a record | Up, other months | t (Newey–West) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +14.2% | +11.9% | 92% | 81% | 0.84 |
| 3 years | +47.3% | +39.9% | 90% | 83% | 0.73 |
| 5 years | +81.7% | +69.6% | 87% | 86% | 0.80 |
407 month-ends, 9% at a record. A 10% fall within the next year: 17% from a record, 32% otherwise.
Why records aren’t a warning
An index that rises over time spends much of its life at or near a record, so a record says little about what comes next. Record months came mostly in steady bull markets, which is also why a 10% fall within a year was less common after them: big falls tend to start from markets that are already wobbling.
The worst exception is the most famous: buying the 1929 record meant waiting 25 years to get back on prices alone. That is why the result from 1928 is weaker than from 1950, though it still isn’t significant.
How it was measured
- S&P 500 index (^GSPC) month-end closes from 1950, prices without dividends. A record month-end is within 0.1% of the highest close so far. SPY with dividends since 1993 as a check.
- Newey–West t-statistics, because overlapping multi-year returns are not independent.
Caveats
- From 1928, records trailed by more over three and five years, mostly because of buying in 1929, though still not significantly.
- Records cluster: many of the 69 record month-ends sit in a few long bull markets.
Questions
- Is it bad to invest at an all-time high?
- Not historically. Since 1950, the S&P 500 rose 9.4% on average in the year after a month-end at a record, the same as after any other month.
- Does the market fall after a record high?
- Less often than after other months. The S&P 500 fell 10% or more within the next year from 20% of record month-ends since 1950, against 32% of the others.
More research
- Market factWe tested 24 Supertrend settings. None beat holding the S&P 500
- Market factOnly 20% of US stocks beat the S&P 500 over the last ten years
- MacroStocks did best after the economy looked worst
Historical analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice. Published Nov 2026. Data: S&P 500 and SPY to Nov 6, 2026.