37 of America’s 50 biggest companies fell more than 40% on the way up

What we found

Of today’s 50 largest US companies, 37 fell more than 40% from a high at some point since September 2016, and 23 fell more than half. SPY’s worst fall over the same years was 34%, in March 2020.

NVIDIA fell 66% in 2021–22 and still returned 134 times its 2016 price. Holding the winners meant sitting through falls most investors sell in.

The full results

The price of the big winners

The median company among today’s 50 largest fell 49% at its worst since 2016; SPY’s worst fall was 34%. Even the best ten-year investments spent long stretches far below their highs: Meta fell 77% in 2021–22 and took until 2024 to recover.

Most investors don’t hold through a 50% fall. A strategy that sells on a large drop would have missed much of NVIDIA’s, Meta’s and Netflix’s gains.

Check before you buy

Every stock page shows its drawdowns over time against SPY, and the screener can sort by maximum drawdown and volatility. Knowing how far a stock has fallen before is a fair guide to how far it can fall again.

How it was measured

• Largest peak-to-trough fall in daily total-return prices since September 2016, or since listing for later listings.

Caveats

• These are today’s winners, chosen with hindsight; falls among the companies that didn’t make it were deeper.

Questions

Did the best-performing stocks have big drawdowns?

Yes. 37 of today’s 50 largest US companies fell more than 40% from a high at some point since 2016; the median worst fall was 49%, against 34% for SPY.

How much did NVIDIA fall?

NVIDIA fell 66% in 2021–22 and still returned 134 times its September 2016 price.